Where does Bitcoin go next? The crowd has spoken, and it’s changed its mind.
On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, sentiment has suddenly shifted in the last few hours as the price of Bitcoin tumbles further. There’s now a 57% chance Bitcoin sooner drops to $100,000 than hits $120,000, according to Myriad. Just hours earlier, predictors had priced in a 57% chance Bitcoin would head in the other direction.
When prediction markets flip this dramatically, this quickly, it’s time to pay attention.
With BTC trading for just under $108,000, having only recently hit a new all-time high above $125,000, the question isn’t whether Bitcoin is in a short-term bearish phase—it clearly is.
The real question is whether we’re looking at a healthy, say 20%, correction that sets up the next leg higher, or the beginning of something uglier. Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% in the last seven days, testing levels that could determine whether we revisit the psychologically important $100K mark or reclaim the comfortable $120K zone where BTC spent much of the summer.
A look at the usual technical indicators that traders rely on offers a view of the current picture.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum, with readings over 70 suggesting overbought conditions and under 30 indicating oversold.
Over the last day, we’ve seen a pretty steep dip in Bitcoin’s RSI to 37 points—oversold but not capitulation-level oversold. Right now, traders are mostly short-term bearish, and the Fear and Greed Index (a sentiment indicator that goes from 1 to 100) at 30 points and firmly in the “fear” zone corroborates this.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Anything above 25 generally confirms a trend, but at 25.23, this barely confirms trend establishment for Bitcoin. It suggests the daily downtrend isn’t overwhelmingly strong in the long term, but it was enough to almost cancel the overall bullish momentum of Bitcoin’s recent trends.
Yet this relative weakness in trend strength is deceptive, because the shorter timeframes tell a much darker story. Switch to the four-hour chart and the bear case crystallizes.
The RSI plunges to 32.74, with the ADX rocketing to 34.63—well into “strong trend” territory. When shorter timeframes show stronger trend readings than longer ones, it typically means momentum is accelerating, not slowing.
Here’s the kicker: the four-hour charts also reveal Bitcoin to be in the dreaded “death cross” formation. Exponential moving averages give traders a sense of price supports and resistances over the short, medium, and long term. They track these movements over time to see how they line up and spot trends.
Where does Bitcoin go next? The crowd has spoken, and it’s changed its mind.
On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, sentiment has suddenly shifted in the last few hours as the price of Bitcoin tumbles further. There’s now a 57% chance Bitcoin sooner drops to $100,000 than hits $120,000, according to Myriad. Just hours earlier, predictors had priced in a 57% chance Bitcoin would head in the other direction.
When prediction markets flip this dramatically, this quickly, it’s time to pay attention.
With BTC trading for just under $108,000, having only recently hit a new all-time high above $125,000, the question isn’t whether Bitcoin is in a short-term bearish phase—it clearly is.
The real question is whether we’re looking at a healthy, say 20%, correction that sets up the next leg higher, or the beginning of something uglier. Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% in the last seven days, testing levels that could determine whether we revisit the psychologically important $100K mark or reclaim the comfortable $120K zone where BTC spent much of the summer.
A look at the usual technical indicators that traders rely on offers a view of the current picture.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures market momentum, with readings over 70 suggesting overbought conditions and under 30 indicating oversold.
Over the last day, we’ve seen a pretty steep dip in Bitcoin’s RSI to 37 points—oversold but not capitulation-level oversold. Right now, traders are mostly short-term bearish, and the Fear and Greed Index (a sentiment indicator that goes from 1 to 100) at 30 points and firmly in the “fear” zone corroborates this.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures trend strength, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Anything above 25 generally confirms a trend, but at 25.23, this barely confirms trend establishment for Bitcoin. It suggests the daily downtrend isn’t overwhelmingly strong in the long term, but it was enough to almost cancel the overall bullish momentum of Bitcoin’s recent trends.
Yet this relative weakness in trend strength is deceptive, because the shorter timeframes tell a much darker story. Switch to the four-hour chart and the bear case crystallizes.
The RSI plunges to 32.74, with the ADX rocketing to 34.63—well into “strong trend” territory. When shorter timeframes show stronger trend readings than longer ones, it typically means momentum is accelerating, not slowing.
Here’s the kicker: the four-hour charts also reveal Bitcoin to be in the dreaded “death cross” formation. Exponential moving averages give traders a sense of price supports and resistances over the short, medium, and long term. They track these movements over time to see how they line up and spot trends.
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